2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Current Atlantic hurricane season

2024 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJune 19, 2024
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameBeryl
 • Maximum winds165 mph (270 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure934 mbar (hPa; 27.58 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions3
Total storms3
Hurricanes1
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		1
Total fatalities25 total
Total damage> $1.01 billion (2024 USD)
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is the active Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, and will end on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean. The first system, Tropical Storm Alberto, developed on June 19, making it the latest first named storm since 2014.

The season's second system, Hurricane Beryl, became the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record and only the second recorded in the month of July.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2024 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1991–2020) 14.4 7.2 3.2 [1]
Record high activity 30 15 7† [2]
Record low activity 1 0† 0† [2]
TSR December 11, 2023 20 9 4 [3]
CSU April 4, 2024 23 11 5 [4]
MFM April 5, 2024 21 11 N/A [5]
TSR April 8, 2024 23 11 5 [6]
UA April 8, 2024 21 11 5 [7]
MU April 12, 2024 26 11 5 [8]
NCSU April 16, 2024 15–20 10–12 3–4 [9]
UPenn April 24, 2024 33 N/A N/A [10]
SMN May 6, 2024 20–23 9–11 4–5 [11]
UKMO* May 22, 2024 22 12 4 [12]
NOAA May 23, 2024 17–25 8–13 4–7 [13]
TSR May 30, 2024 24 12 6 [14]
CSU June 11, 2024 23 11 5 [15]
UA June 23, 2024 23 10 5 [16]
Actual activity 3 1 1
* June–November only
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year.[17]

According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units.[1][18] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[1]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.[nb 1][3] They took into account ongoing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) throughout most of the basin, specifically in the Main Development Region and in the Caribbean Sea on top of the 2023–2024 El Niño event which was predicted to weaken to a neutral phase by August 2024.[3] TSR updated their forecast on May 30, predicting 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes with an ACE of 226 units.[14] On April 4, 2024, Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast, calling for an extremely active hurricane season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 210 units, citing the extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of a La Niña by the summer.[4] On April 5, Météo-France (MFM) issued a prediction of 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes. They cited warm sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and humidity.[5] On April 8, TSR updated their prediction, predicting 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 217 units. They predicted that moderate La Niña conditions would occur in the summer and persist into fall and above average sea surface temperatures would also persist into summer.[6] On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a very active season featuring 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 156 units.[7] On April 12, University of Missouri (MU) issued their prediction of 26 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.[8] On April 16, NCSU issued their prediction of 15–20 named storms, 10–12 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes.[9] On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.[10] On May 6, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued their forecast of 20–23 tropical storms, 9–11 hurricanes, and 4–5 major hurricanes.[11] On May 22, UKMO published their forecast for the 2024 season, calling for 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 212 units.[12] One day later, NOAA published their hurricane season prediction, forecasting an above-average season of 17–25 named storms, 8–13 hurricanes, and 4–7 major hurricanes with an 85% chance of being an above-average season.[13] TSR updated their predictions on May 30 with 24 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes with an ACE of 226.[14]

Mid-season forecasts

On June 11, CSU also updated their predictions with 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 210.[15] On June 23, UA updated their prediction with 23 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 231.[16]

Seasonal summary

Hurricane BerylTropical Storm Alberto (2024)Saffir–Simpson scale

Background

Officially, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and will end on November 30.[20] So far, three tropical cyclones have formed, all became named storms. One of the three systems strengthened into a hurricane, and further attained major hurricane intensity.

This season's ACE index, as of 15:00 UTC July 4, is approximately 28.7 units.[21] This number represents sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000. Therefore, tropical depressions are not included.

Early activity

Though the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, it got off to the slowest start since 2014. This was due to a large stationary heat dome over Central America and Mexico, as tropical cyclogenesis in June often occurs over the Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean Sea.[22] The season's first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, formed in the western Gulf of Mexico on June 19,[nb 2][24] then proceeded to make landfall on the northeastern coast of Mexico the following day.[25] Next came Hurricane Beryl, the earliest-forming Category 4 and Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane on record in a season and the strongest June hurricane on record in the basin. After forming on June 28 in the MDR, the storm rapidly intensified as it approached the Windward Islands,[26][27][28] peaking as a Category 5 hurricane late on July 1.[29] Short-lived Tropical Storm Chris developed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on June 30[30], quickly moving ashore in Mexico the following morning.[31]

Systems

Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 19 – June 20
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
993 mbar (hPa)

On June 12, the NHC noted that an area of disturbed weather could form over the western Gulf of Mexico and possibly develop into a tropical cyclone.[32] Several days later, early on June 17, a low-pressure area formed over the Bay of Campeche.[33] The low was spawned from a disturbance within the Central American gyre.[34] Though its thunderstorm activity was scattered, the invest began to grow better organized later that day and was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One.[35] The system slowly organized over the following two days as it approached the Mexican coast,[36] developing into Tropical Storm Alberto on June 19.[24] Alberto steadily intensified throughout the day, ultimately attaining peak sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), and a minimum central pressure of 993 mbar (29.32 inHg).[37] Early the following morning, the system made landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas.[25] Alberto rapidly weakened over land,[38] dissipating just nine hours later.[39]

Heavy rainfall from Alberto resulted in four deaths, all in Nuevo León: one in Monterrey due to La Silla River flooding, one in El Carmen, and two in Allende (the latter three were indirect electrocution deaths).[40][41] Alberto brought significant rainfall to the Galveston area, leading to freshwater flooding. Its winds caused a 2–4 feet (0.6–1 m) storm surge, inundating coastal communities between Galveston and Freeport.[42][43] Additionally, an EF1 tornado touched down near Bellville, causing some property damage along its 2 mi (3.2 km) long path,[44] and two EF0 tornadoes occurred near Rockport.[45][46] To the east, coastal communities in Louisiana, especially Grand Isle, also received some flooding.[47] The preliminary estimate is that Alberto caused less than US$10 million in damage overall.[48]

Hurricane Beryl

Category 5 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 28 – Present
Peak intensity165 mph (270 km/h) (1-min);
934 mbar (hPa)

On June 25, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms just south of Cabo Verde.[49] The following day, the wave began showing signs of organization, with modest thunderstorm activity, curved bands, and some spin development.[50] The disturbance further organized, becoming Tropical Depression Two over the central tropical Atlantic on June 28.[51] The system was in an unusually favorable environment for the time of year with warm sea surface temperatures (SST) and minimal wind shear, and consequently began a period of rapid intensification. The depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl six hours after formation,[52] reaching Category 1 strength the next day,[27] and Category 2 strength late that night.[53] Beryl attained major hurricane strength early the next morning on June 30[54] and further intensified to Category 4 strength a few hours later.[55] Beryl then underwent an eyewall replacement cycle and briefly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane early on July 1,[56] but regained Category 4 strength just six hours later once the cycle was completed.[57] Later that morning, Beryl made landfall on Carriacou, Grenada, as a high-end Category 4 hurricane.[58] Beryl continued to slowly intensify despite increasing westerly shear in the southeastern Caribbean, attaining Category 5 strength late on July 1,[29] peaking a few hours later with sustained winds of 165 mph (270 km/h).[59] Later that same day, Beryl passed south of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic, where it weakened back to Category 4 strength[60] as a result of wind shear.[61]

On June 29, the prime minister of Saint Lucia ordered a national shutdown in anticipation of Beryl's impacts on the island nation.[62] Caribbean Airlines postponed several flights between Barbados, Grenada, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago the next day.[63] A Caribbean Community meeting in Grenada, scheduled to run from July 3 to July 5, was canceled.[64] In both Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, early reports indicated that storm winds blew off roofs, uprooted trees and caused other infrastructure damage.[58]

Tropical Storm Chris

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 30 – July 1
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1005 mbar (hPa)

On June 24, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave east-southeast of the Windward Islands producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.[65] The disturbance moved generally westward across the Caribbean for several days,[66] before traversing the Yucatán Peninsula and emerging in the Bay of Campeche early on June 30.[67] There, an area of low pressure formed, which quickly became better organized. Tropical Depression Three formed later that day,[68] and strengthened into Tropical Storm Chris six hours later.[30] Shortly thereafter, the system made landfall in the municipality of Vega de Alatorre, Veracruz, at peak intensity.[31] Chris rapidly weakened over the rough terrain of Mexico, dissipating early on July 1.[69]

Chris generated heavy rains in the states of Chiapas, Hidalgo, Morelos, San Luis Potosí, and Veracruz, causing flooding, overflowing rivers, and mudslides.[70] Consequently, local authorities in Veracruz closed schools in 41 municipalities and opened 9 temporary shelters, which housed 86 people.[31][70] Flooding also damaged numerous homes, including almost 2,000 in Huiloapan alone.[70]

Storm names

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2024.[71] This is the same list used in the 2018 season, with the exceptions of Francine and Milton, which replaced Florence and Michael, respectively.[72]

  • Alberto
  • Beryl (active)
  • Chris
  • Debby (unused)
  • Ernesto (unused)
  • Francine (unused)
  • Gordon (unused)
  • Helene (unused)
  • Isaac (unused)
  • Joyce (unused)
  • Kirk (unused)
  • Leslie (unused)
  • Milton (unused)
  • Nadine (unused)
  • Oscar (unused)
  • Patty (unused)
  • Rafael (unused)
  • Sara (unused)
  • Tony (unused)
  • Valerie (unused)
  • William (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their name, duration, peak classification and intensities, areas affected, damage, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2024 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2024 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Alberto June 19–20 Tropical storm 50 (85) 993 Yucatán Peninsula, Northeastern Mexico, Texas, Louisiana <$10 million 1 (3) [48]
Beryl June 28 – Present Category 5 hurricane 165 (270) 934 Barbados, Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cayman Islands >$1 billion 21 [73]
Chris June 30 – July 1 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1005 Yucatán Peninsula, Eastern Mexico Minimal None [74]
Season aggregates
3 systems June 19 – Season ongoing   165 (270) 934 >$1.01 billion 22 (3)  

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher—1-minute sustained winds higher than 110 miles per hour (178 km/h)—on the Saffir–Simpson scale are described as major hurricanes.[19]
  2. ^ The average formation date of the first named Atlantic tropical storm is June 20.[23]

References

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  3. ^ a b c Wood, Nick (December 11, 2023). "Extended Range Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 11, 2023. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
  4. ^ a b Klotzbach, Phil (April 4, 2024). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2024" (PDF). Colorado State University. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 4, 2024. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
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